Augmenting Efforts for a Tool to Predict Post-Event Rural Population Surge

Funder:	Office of Rural Health Policy (ORHP)
Research center:	Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis Phone: 301.634.9300
Lead researcher:	Michael Meit, MA, MPH , 301.634.9324, meit-michael@norc.org
Project funded:	September 2006
Project completed:	October 2008
Topic:	Emergency preparedness

In discussions with preparedness planners, we have found that the lack of population surge estimates (i.e., estimates of the number of persons who may enter a rural community after a catastrophic event) is seen as a significant barrier to local planning efforts. Rural preparedness dollars can be more effectively and efficiently utilized at the local level if communities have information on population surge, thereby creating a basis upon which community preparedness planners can determine needed resources and supplies. This study will use a national household survey and a series of discussions with community and national experts to inform rural preparedness planning efforts and augment the predictive accuracy of a tool being developed by the Walsh Center for rural preparedness planners.

In the first phase of this study, Walsh Center staff conducted key informant interviews with preparedness experts, including national experts and paired urban-rural preparedness planners. Interview protocols focused on anticipated behavior and response of urban residents following a disaster, the likelihood of self-evacuation to surrounding rural areas, the ability of rural communities to accommodate evacuees, and planning efforts to address these concerns.

The second phase of the project was a national survey of urban residents to assess their intended behavior following an urban disaster. Interview questions focused on issues such as whether they have formulated disaster plans, whether they have family within the region, whether they are likely to follow governmental shelter in place orders, etc. The survey included a standard series of demographic questions for use in the tabulation of results. Relevant variables for this analysis include: gender, age, household income, marital status, geographic region, metro/non-metro residency, race, education, and employment status.

Results from both study phases have been released as Policy Briefs and will be included in a final study report.

Publications

• Spontaneous Evacuation Following a Dirty Bomb or Pandemic Influenza: Highlights from a National Survey of Urban Residents' Intended Behavior
  Author(s): Michael Meit, Thomas Briggs, Alene Kennedy, Janet Sutton, Jacob Feldman
  Report Number: W Series No. 12
  Date: 11 / 2007
  Reports results of a national survey to assess the evacuation intentions of urban citizens following emergency scenarios. Includes information on how likely it would be for evacuees to go to a rural or urban area. Discusses the potential impact of an urban evacuation on rural areas.
• Urban-to-Rural Evacuation: Planning for Population Surge (Final Report)
  Author(s): Michael Meit, Alene Kennedy, Thomas Briggs
  Date: 08 / 2008
  To date, rural emergency planning efforts have focused more on addressing the needs of rural residents and have not accounted for potential population surge from neighboring urban areas in the event of disaster. In many areas, rural infrastructure and capacities are likely to be stretched thin or possibly overwhelmed. This study assessed the likelihood of urban evacuation to rural areas and provides recommendations for rural planning and response.
• Urban-to-Rural Evacuation: Planning for Population Surge (Policy Brief)
  Author(s): Michael Meit, Alene Kennedy, Thomas Briggs
  Report Number: Policy Analysis Brief W Series No. 9
  Date: 04 / 2007
  Discusses disaster planning and how rural preparedness officials face significant informational, organizational, and infrastructural constraints in their abilities to prepare for a potential population surge from urban areas.