Development of a Web-Based Spatial Analysis Tool to Predict Post-Event Rural Population Surge
The initial focus of the project was to develop algorithms to predict evacuation patterns to rural areas using information from national data sources to the extent possible. Algorithms were developed based on three scenarios initially, including dirty bomb, avian influenza, and chemical explosion. Once algorithms were developed, the Walsh Center team worked with the Pennsylvania State
University Center for Environmental Informatics to create a prototype searchable Web-based mapping tool. This system will form the foundation for future data overlays, creating a robust preparedness planning tool that will assist communities in regional preparedness planning and response.
During the current project year the tool will be expanded nationally, allowing users to focus in on specific urban areas and model population flow to surrounding rural communities following disaster scenarios. The tool does not
require sophisticated geospatial technology, but rather is built to work in a standard browser interface with the Macromedia Shockwave Plug-in (FLASH), which comes as a standard feature in most current releases of Web browsers. The tool features an interactive, map-driven interface with standard zoom, pan, and select functions that allow the user to query specific points for desired information.
In addition to the web based tool, the project team has also developed a planning guide to assist rural communities in developing contingency plans should urban populations seek shelter in their jurisdictions.
Work continues to refise and refine the modeling tool and to develop additional planning resources.
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